Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy

South Koreas output is continuing to accelerate, and the government

needs to exit from its accommodative economic policies earlier than anticipated. The HSBC Koreas purchasing managers index (PMI) rose from 55.6 in January to 58.2 in February the highest since December 2007. New orders are coming in, and there are rising backlogs of unfulfilled orders.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - Employment too is rising suggesting that the current pace of growth will be sustained for the next several months. Inflation paced a little with consumer prices up 3.1% in January from a year earlier. But inflation in Korea is likely to remain stable for some months.

The central bank is expected to tighten its monetary policy by starting to raise interest rates from the current record low of 2% in the later part of the second quarter as the government retains its focus on job creation and growth.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - Exports expanded 31% year on year, better than Reuters forecast of 22.7%. South Korea posted a much larger-than-expected

trade surplus of $2.33 billion in February as ship deliveries boosted exports, while imports fell as holidays reduced crude oil and natural gas demand.

The government expects a monthly trade surplus of more than $1 billion from March as demand improves. The current-account surplus is most likely to dwindle to around $17 billion this year from $42.7 billion in 2009 as imports rise. A new Bank of Korea governor, widely expected to be a more pro-government figure, will not rush to raise rates after taking office

in April.

Exports grew 31% from a year earlier to $33.27 billion, faster than the expected rise of 21%, while imports climbed 36.9% to $30.94 billion, exceeding a forecast of an expansion of 34.0%.

South Korea, which is heading the G20 group of leading economies wants to leave an imprint of its presidency.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - It is trying to introduce a system of international currency swaps which it hopes will reduce global imbalances by lessening the need for countries to accumulate reserves, seen as one of the causes of last years financial and

economic crisis.

Shaw Capital Management - Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor. Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

A true open architecture firm is completely independent of the rest of the financial services industry and accepts compensation only from its clients.

In addition, open architecture firms must make the financial commitment to hire only the most experienced advisors, and those advisors must apply their experience to the issues that will most affect their clients' wealth.

Matters like asset allocation and manager search are simply too important to be left in the hands of young analysts.

We are proud of our role in leading the open architecture revolution, and look forward to introducing you to its benefits.

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Japan Submits Budget for 2010

Online PR News – 30-June-2010 –The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to
medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen. At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a
budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second,
initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating.

“The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’spublic finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.”

“Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note. “It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic
measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected
to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points. At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the
outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.

“At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to
achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour.

More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April
.
“Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.

“Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

Shaw Capital Management February Newsletter: Government bond Markets 3 of 3

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - The markets are assuming that the more powerful members of the eurozone will support the weaker members in order to prevent defaults that might threaten the single currency structure; but the yield spreads have widened considerably to reflect the increased risks. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle through”, and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. The gilt edged market has also come under pressure over the past month; short-term yields have remained basically unchanged, but there have been increases in medium and longer-term yields that has produced a much steeper yield curve.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - There has been evidence of a modest improvement in the economic background; and the Bank of England is proving to be a stabilising influence at a difficult time; but a very disappointing Pre-Budget Report has indicated that there will be no attempt to address the problems of the huge fiscal deficit until after the election. Our tentative view is that the markets will “muddle through”, and that defaults will be avoided; but higher overall yield levels seem unavoidable. Prospects in these markets are therefore very unattractive. Funding pressures will therefore continued to increase; and so, although there does not appear to be any real danger that the UK might join the list of countries that could default on their sovereign debts, annual debt issues in excess of £200 billion cannot continue for long if this is to be avoided. It is no surprise therefore that investors have reacted by reducing their exposure to the market.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - There is still some doubt whether the UK economy has moved out of recession. The pace of contraction in the third quarter of the year has been slightly reduced, and since then the pace of job losses has declined, and consumer spending has held up fairly well. But business investment and manufacturing activity remains weak, and so there may have been no overall improvement in the final quarter of last year. The Bank of England has therefore kept short-term interest rates at 0.5%, and maintained its quantitative easing programme, and this has provided support for the market, since the bank has been a major buyer of gilts in recent months.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - However it has not been enough to prevent a very adverse reaction to the Pre-Budget Report from the UK Chancellor. The market did not really expect any significant action on the deficit ahead of the forth-coming general election; but was still surprised by the apparent lack of realism. The government is prepared to allow the deficit to continue to accumulate, and is relying on the gilt edged market to provide the funds to finance that deficit in the hope that this will enable it to win the election, and has produced no real indications of how the deficit might be reduced even after the election is over. It is not surprising therefore that investors have reacted by reducing exposure, that 10-year yields have risen to 4% and longer-term yields to 4.5%, and that there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a full-blown debt crisis in the coming months. We do not share these extreme views; but clearly the prospects for the market are very unattractive, and higher yields appear unavoidable. Investors have reacted by reducing exposure... and there are even suggestions that the country could face a capital flight and a fullblown debt crisis in the coming months.

Shaw Capital Management Korea February Newsletter:  Article three of three - The Japanese bond market is basically unchanged over the past month; but there are fears that present yield levels are unsustainable. A sharp reduction in the growth estimate for the third quarter of last year, and weaknesses since then have raised the possibility of a move back into recession and a further period of deflation. The government has reacted by launching its fourth fiscal rescue package since the economic crisis began last year. It amounts to the equivalent of a further $81 billion to be spent in the regions and on subsidies for consumer durables, and is expected to lift the debt issuance this year to a record $835 billion, despite the indications that bond investors may be becoming increasingly unwilling to finance such a high level of new bonds, and the warning from the IMF that the government is risking a significant increase in debt funding costs. Since overseas involvement in the bond market is at a very low level, such a development is unlikely to affect bond markets elsewhere directly; but it could be a warning to other countries of the dangers of placing too much pressure on their own markets.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence.  We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management based in Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Shaw Capital Management News Washington Waxes Brazilian

Brazil provides us with an example of a rapidly developing, energy-hungry economy in the Western Hemisphere, where biofuel is a fact of life. Biofuel is also an investment imperative for energy investors and companies that want to make money in Brazil. As an important part of the #3 economy in the Americas, ethanol can't be ignored by the United States

.
(Sugar) Ethanol as a Global Commodity; Focus on Cosan Ltd. (NYSE: CZZ) Cosan is entering into a joint venture with an oil giant that could be worth $12 billion, and its happy beginning to 2010 signals a renewal of interest in ethanol and entrance of some unlikely participants into biofuels. Cosan, a Brazilian company that processes more sugar than anyone else in the world, is now joining with Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS), the #2 oil producer in Europe.
Shell is paying Cosan $1.625 billion for half of its core assets. As part of the joint venture that will emerge, Shell is also taking on Cosan's debt and opening up 2,740 Shell service stations to Cosan's sweet, green fuel. Shell will also give Cosan two small Brazilian companies ... Codexis and Iogen ... where Shell has been investing in ethanol. Cosan is entering into a joint venture with an oil giant that could be worth $12 billion, and...signals a renewal of interest in ethanol and entrance of some unlikely participants into biofuels.
Shaw Capital Management Korea News: Cosan stands to gain big from an efficient system of turning agricultural leftovers into fuel in its own right. Of all the money and knowledge changing hands, one part is most important: By gaining access to Shell's distribution system, Cosan will have the luxury of ramping up production without
worrying if there will be buyers.
Shell wants to fertilize Cosan's cane-based business. Cosan output now has to grow from 2 billion liters per year up to the 3 billion that will be needed to satisfy a total 4,500 fuel stations in Brazil. From there, it's up to 4 and 5 billion liters annually and on to making ethanol a global commodity. You'd be hard pressed to tell the difference between Shell and Cosan's statements on this joint venture if you removed a couple of words. Very simply, each company wants access to the other's expertise. "Cosan represents the best entry to sustainable biofuels in the market... the best entry of scale," Shell's Mark Williams said in London. In Sao Paulo, Cosan Chairman Rubens Ometto said the tie-up is intended to be "the step forward that was lacking, in spite of all our efforts, to make ethanol a global commodity." Shell's 45,000 stations around the world will pump biofuel to vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, or a mixture of the two.

Shaw Capital Management Korea News: Low prices also help, as evidenced in Brazil where flex-fuel vehicles now account for 90% of new cars and truck sales. Shell's 45,000 stations around the world will pump biofuel to vehicles that can run on gasoline, ethanol, or a mixture of the two (Brazil mandates that all gasoline have at least a 20% ethanol component). As it stands, Brazilians are the end users of the vast majority of the ethanol that their country produces (about 25 billion liters annually). And you wouldn't know it from most of the media, but ethanol is more than just an automotive matter...
Shaw Capital Management, Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.
About Author
  Shaw Capital Management, Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence.  We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.

Shaw Capital Management: South Korea's Economy

South Koreas output is continuing to accelerate, and the government needs to exit from its accommodative economic policies earlier than anticipated. The HSBC Koreas purchasing managers index (PMI) rose from 55.6 in January to 58.2 in February the highest since December 2007. New orders are coming in, and there are rising backlogs of unfulfilled orders.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - Employment too is rising suggesting that the current pace of growth will be sustained for the next several months. Inflation paced a little with consumer prices up 3.1% in January from a year earlier. But inflation in Korea is likely to remain stable for some months.

The central bank is expected to tighten its monetary policy by starting to raise interest rates from the current record low of 2% in the later part of the second quarter as the government retains its focus on job creation and growth.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - Exports expanded 31% year on year, better than Reuters forecast of 22.7%.

Related Coverage

• China"��s Economy: By Shaw Capital Management Korea
China"��s Economy: by Shaw Capital Management Korea - China will continue fiscal stimulus spending and its current monetary policies this year as the country has, in the opinion of the Chinese Communist Party, not fully recovered from the economic downturn.
• Taiwan"��s Economy: By Shaw Capital Management Korea
With gross domestic product clocking 10.2% growth from a year ago in the fourth quarter, and 4.2% from the previous quarter, Taiwan returned to pre-financial crisis growth levels. In spite of the strong recovery in the second half of the year.
• Shaw Capital Management: Brazil"��s Economy
Brazil"��s economy emerged from a deep but short recession in the second half of last year. The economy is expected to grow by at least 5.5% this year. But along with economic growth, expectations of higher inflation have also returned.
• Shaw Capital Management News: Washington Waxes Brazilian
Brazil provides us with an example of a rapidly developing, energy-hungry economy in the Western Hemisphere, where biofuel is a fact of life. Biofuel is also an investment imperative for energy investors and companies that want to make money in Brazil. As an important part of the #3 economy in the Americas, ethanol can't be ignored by the United States.

South Korea posted a much larger-than-expected

trade surplus of $2.33 billion in February as ship deliveries boosted exports, while imports fell as holidays reduced crude oil and natural gas demand.

The government expects a monthly trade surplus of more than $1 billion from March as demand improves. The current-account surplus is most likely to dwindle to around $17 billion this year from $42.7 billion in 2009 as imports rise. A new Bank of Korea governor, widely expected to be a more pro-government figure, will not rush to raise rates after taking office

in April.

Exports grew 31% from a year earlier to $33.27 billion, faster than the expected rise of 21%, while imports climbed 36.9% to $30.94 billion, exceeding a forecast of an expansion of 34.0%.

South Korea, which is heading the G20 group of leading economies wants to leave an imprint of its presidency.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - It is trying to introduce a system of international currency swaps which it hopes will reduce global imbalances by lessening the need for countries to accumulate reserves, seen as one of the causes of last years financial and

economic crisis.

Shaw Capital Management - Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

A true open architecture firm is completely independent of the rest of the financial services industry and accepts compensation only from its clients.

In addition, open architecture firms must make the financial commitment to hire only the most experienced advisors, and those advisors must apply their experience to the issues that will most affect their clients' wealth.

Matters like asset allocation and manager search are simply too important to be left in the hands of young analysts.

We are proud of our role in leading the open architecture revolution, and look forward to introducing you to its benefits.

Shaw Capital Management Information

Shaw Capital Management - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics

Shaw Capital Management Newsletter: Japan Submits Budget for 2010

Online PR News – 30-June-2010 –The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) government submitted to the Diet the fiscal 2010 budget amounting to ¥92.3 trillion, its first budget since its inauguration in mid-September. The budget was even larger than its counterpart for the current fiscal year — which was already a record if one includes the second supplementary stimulus package, approved last December. This was because of additional spending on child allowances, free senior high school education, cash subsidies to farmers, and higher payments to
medical institutions to alleviate the shortage of medical doctors. Particularly noteworthy is the large amount devoted to social security, up to ¥27.3 trillion, which account for 51% of general public spending … the first time that the social security share has exceeded 50%. In marked contrast, public works investment, which has been cut back by almost 20%, amounts to ¥5.8 trillion, a record drop that symbolizes the DPJ’s philosophy of shifting money to people from public works... eightynine dam projects are likely to be frozen. At a news conference, Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama described it as “a
budget meant to safeguard the life of the people.” He also claimed that three reforms were incorporated in the architecture of the budget: first, the principle of a shift of priority “from concrete to people”; second,
initiatives taken by politicians instead of bureaucrats; and third, securing transparency in the budget formulation process. Some creditable aspects notwithstanding, the budget bill appears to be overshadowed, as media reports made clear, by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’s public finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent as recently pointed out by credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s which raised the prospect of a downgrade in Japan’s sovereign debt rating.

“The budget bill appears to be overshadowed by concern over a severe revenue shortage and its implications for the future of Japan’spublic finances, which are already debt-laden to a perilous extent.”

“Japan’s economic policy flexibility has diminished as a result of increased fiscal deficits and government debt, persistent deflation and a prospect of continued sluggish economic growth”, analysts at the firm said in a note. “It’s impossible to keep tolerating this massive spending,” said Takeshi Minami , chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute in Tokyo. “Japan’s fiscal health will continue to be exceedingly severe given revenue won’t grow and a stagnant recovery may require additional economic
measures.” A major reason for the squeeze is a plunge in prospective tax revenues due to the economic downturn and the drop in corporate profits. Tax revenues for fiscal 2010 are estimated to fall to ¥37.4 trillion, the same level as 26 years ago, in the mid-1980s — while corporate tax revenues are expected
to be half the amount in normal years. As a result, the government has to raise ¥44.3 billion in new government bonds, compared to ¥53.5 trillion in FY2009. This leaves the treasury dependent on debt for 48% of the total budget, up 10 percentage points. At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the
outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.

“At the end of the fiscal year, on March 31, 2011, the outstanding balance of government bond issues will have shot up to ¥637 trillion, the equivalent of 134% of Japan’s GDP while public debt will probably spiral to ¥973 trillion, almost double GDP.”

According to the new government, the economic policies adopted by the previous ruling party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), failed on two fronts: initially boosting demand by increasing public investment, which was effective in the short term but not sustainable until the end of the 1990s. And later enhancing the supply side of the economy by deregulating the labour market and privatizing public entities, which simply widened the income gap within the economy, in the 2000s. However, the new budget was not well received by most observers. The announcement was rather sudden and lacked a comprehensive path to
achieve the stated goals, they claim. Also, no reliable, specific incentives were offered, such as tax changes or deregulation that affect private sector behaviour.

More importantly, given its enormous debt, the government has limited room to offer any incentives without jeopardizing other parts of the economy. However, there was no mention of these painful trade-offs. In addition, while the budget contains some signs of change, there is concern that it may not adequately stimulate the economy. Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget (and in the second fiscal 2009 supplementary budget) are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April
.
“Most private sector economists believe that spending measures in the fiscal 2010 budget are expected to provide a limited boost to Japan’s GDP and to kick in no sooner than April.”

Overall, the budget appears to be the result of a compromise between an attempt to impose some fiscal discipline and the promises made in last year’s summer election of new direct supports to households, such as child allowance, as well as concern over a double-dip recession. “Harsh financial conditions have prevented the administration from keeping all the promises that the DPJ made during its campaign last summer (for instance it has eliminated highway tolls and the gasoline tax). But the administration has succeeded, to some extent, in realizing the party’s slogan of “shifting weight to people from concrete” and its aim of providing more funds for households, rather than for industry-linked organizations and large-scale public works projects”, asserted in its editorial the Japan Times, one of the main national newspapers.

“Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats.”

The budget must now be approved by Japan’s parliament before taking effect. Hatoyama’s popularity has dropped to 48% this month from 71% after he took the office in September. Almost every move the government makes over the coming months must be seen against the backdrop of the crucial upper house election, which must be held in July for half of the seats. So in the end the budget and its goals may be more dream than reality.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy

South Koreas output is continuing to accelerate, and the government needs to exit from its accommodative economic policies earlier than anticipated. The HSBC Koreas purchasing managers index (PMI) rose from 55.6 in January to 58.2 in February the highest since December 2007. New orders are coming in, and there are rising backlogs of unfulfilled orders.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - Employment too is rising suggesting that the current pace of growth will be sustained for the next several months. Inflation paced a little with consumer prices up 3.1% in January from a year earlier. But inflation in Korea is likely to remain stable for some months.

The central bank is expected to tighten its monetary policy by starting to raise interest rates from the current record low of 2% in the later part of the second quarter as the government retains its focus on job creation and growth.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - Exports expanded 31% year on year, better than Reuters forecast of 22.7%. South Korea posted a much larger-than-expected
trade surplus of $2.33 billion in February as ship deliveries boosted exports, while imports fell as holidays reduced crude oil and natural gas demand.

The government expects a monthly trade surplus of more than $1 billion from March as demand improves. The current-account surplus is most likely to dwindle to around $17 billion this year from $42.7 billion in 2009 as imports rise. A new Bank of Korea governor, widely expected to be a more pro-government figure, will not rush to raise rates after taking office
in April.

Exports grew 31% from a year earlier to $33.27 billion, faster than the expected rise of 21%, while imports climbed 36.9% to $30.94 billion, exceeding a forecast of an expansion of 34.0%.

South Korea, which is heading the G20 group of leading economies wants to leave an imprint of its presidency.

Shaw Capital Management: South Koreas Economy - It is trying to introduce a system of international currency swaps which it hopes will reduce global imbalances by lessening the need for countries to accumulate reserves, seen as one of the causes of last years financial and
economic crisis.

Shaw Capital Management - Every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor. Our philosophy is simple: almost every investor will achieve better long-term risk-adjusted results by working with a true open architecture advisor.

Before Shaw Capital launched the open architecture revolution, investors had to make the unhappy choice between selecting an advisor who was independent, but unsophisticated (the traditional pension and endowment consulting firms), or selecting an advisor who was sophisticated but had conflicting interests (global banks, trust companies, money management firms).

Today, virtually all investors faced with the challenge of managing a significant pool of capital can access open architecture advice.

A true open architecture firm is completely independent of the rest of the financial services industry and accepts compensation only from its clients.

In addition, open architecture firms must make the financial commitment to hire only the most experienced advisors, and those advisors must apply their experience to the issues that will most affect their clients' wealth.

Matters like asset allocation and manager search are simply too important to be left in the hands of young analysts.

We are proud of our role in leading the open architecture revolution, and look forward to introducing you to its benefits.

Economy of China by Shaw Capital Management Korea

China's Economy: by Shaw Capital Management Korea - China will continue fiscal stimulus spending and its current monetary policies this year as the country has, in the opinion of the Chinese Communist Party, not fully recovered from the economic downturn.
The Chinese economy grew 8.7% in 2009, and will expand 8.5% in 2010. The consumer price index rose 1.5% in January from a year earlier, slowing from a 1.9% rise in December.
According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the currentaccount surplus dropped to $284 billion, down by about a third from $426 billion for 2008, which was a record. It is the first decline in the currentaccount balance since 2001.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - China's exports fell last year as global demand collapsed, but the nation's stimulus plan helped support imports. China now accounts for more than 9% of global exports, a share that has been rising since the outbreak of the financial crisis and the ensuing collapse in global trade. China's government says it isn't banking on an export-driven future and has tried, though so far without much success, to shift the emphasis of the economy to domestic consumption and services.
According to International Monetary Fund projections, if current trends continue, China's share of world exports will reach 12% by 2014, a higher portion than Japan managed at the peak of its dominance in the 1980s. China's trade deficit with the US totalled $226.83 billion in 2009 — the U.S.'s largest imbalance with any nation. Mr. Obama has promised to the Congress to "get much tougher" with China on trade rules, including currency rates,
to ensure that U.S. goods are not at a competitive disadvantage.

Shaw Capital Management Korea - India filed more trade complaints against China than any other nation in 2009, according to figures from China's commerce ministry. "A balance of exports and imports is important," Indian Trade Minister Anand Sharma said in January in Beijing. China's trade surplus with India grew 46% in 2009 to $16 billion, probably aggravated by the weakening of the yuan against the Indian rupee.
China continues to remain the world's largest foreign holder of the US dollar bonds which stands at US$895 billion. The second biggest holder of the US debt is Japan (US$760 billion).
Premier Wen will deliver the Government Work Report in the annual session of the National People's Congress (NPC), China's parliament, beginning on March 5. It will spell out Beijing's economic blueprint for 2010 and economic growth targets.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - This year's theme is balanced economic growth. The focus of new fiscal spending is set to shift away from new infrastructure investment to education, healthcare, and other pro-consumption areas. There may be a push to accelerate urbanisation outside of the large cities and in inland regions. The party will endorse measures to increase wages and income. The government has already raised the minimum wage in cities from Beijing to Guangzhou by 10% or more early this year.
The Wen cabinet has indicated that old-age benefits for peasants will be tried out this year and will be made available to all by 2015. Monetary policy will focus on bringing down credit growth to a normal rate of around 17%, from last year's excessive 32%.
Shaw Capital Management Korea - While the 2009 NPC harped on attaining an 8% growth rate, the priority for this year's session is to ensure a more equitable distribution of national
income. This year's NPC will benefit from the lifting of the global economic gloom that hung over last year's session.
U.S.–China bilateral relations have grown tense over President Barack Obama's meeting with the Dalai Lama followed by the Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton meeting. The cyber attack on Google Inc. is widely seen as originating in China. Google has not officially declared that the government had any role in it.

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Shaw Capital Awarded Construction Management Contract for Clean Fuel Project

Shaw Capital Awarded Construction Management Contract for Clean Fuel Project at Marathon Illinois Refinery – Good Warning!

BATON ROUGE, La.,--The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) today announced it has been awarded a capital contract from Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE: MRO) to provide construction management services for a benzene reduction project at its refinery in Robinson, Ill. Services include management of site construction activities such as contractor selection, safety warning, materials management and project controls. The construction is expected to be completed before the mandated date for reduction of benzene content in gasoline to meet new EPA standards.
The award follows Shaw's earlier project management, engineering and procurement services work for the feasibility and definition phases of the project.
"Shaw has extensive refinery expertise and a strong reputation for helping customers meet clean fuels regulations at their plants," said Lou Pucher, president of Shaw's Energy & Chemicals Group. "We place a priority on understanding key environmental and economic drivers and working closely with our customers to ensure success."
Most recently, Shaw management completed engineering and procurement services for another benzene reduction capital project at Marathon's Catlettsburg, Ky., refinery and a 70,000 barrel per day heavy gas oil hydrocracker unit and 47,000 barrel per day kerosene hydrotreater unit at Marathon's Garyville, La., refinery as part of that plant's recent major expansion project. Last year, Shaw was awarded a maintenance, capital construction, turnaround support and specialty services contract for Marathon's Texas Refining Division.
The undisclosed value of the new contract will be included in Shaw's Energy & Chemicals segment's backlog of unfilled orders in the third quarter of fiscal year 2010.
The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE:SHAW) is a leading global provider of engineering, construction, technology, fabrication, remediation and support services for clients in the energy, chemicals, environmental, infrastructure and emergency response industries. A Fortune 500 company with fiscal year 2009 annual revenues of $7.3 billion, Shaw has approximately 28,000 employees around the world and is the power sector industry leader according to Engineering News-Record's list of Top 500 Design Firms. For more information, please visit Shaw's website at www.shawgrp.com.
The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a "safe harbor" for certain forward-looking statements. The statements contained herein that are not historical facts (including without limitation statements to the effect that the Company or its management "believes," "expects," "anticipates," "plans" or other similar expressions) and statements related to revenues, earnings, backlog or other financial information or results are forward-looking statements based on the Company's current expectations and beliefs concerning future developments and their potential effects on the Company. There can be no assurance that future developments affecting the Company will be those anticipated by the Company. These forward-looking statements involve significant risks and uncertainties (some of which are beyond our control) and assumptions and are subject to change based upon various factors. Should one or more of such risks or uncertainties materialize, or should any of our assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary in material respects from those projected in the forward-looking statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. A description of some of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such forward-looking statements can be found in the Company's reports and registration statements filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Form 10-K and Form 10-Q reports, and on the Company's website under the heading "Forward-Looking Statements." These documents are also available from the Securities and Exchange Commission or from the Investor Relations department of Shaw. For more information on the company and announcements it makes from time to time on a regional basis, visit our website at www.shawgrp.com.

Shaw Names Gentry Brann as Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Management

BATON ROUGE, La., Dec 13, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) --
The Shaw Capital Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) today announced Gentry Brann has been named vice president of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications Management.
Ms. Brann joined Shaw in January 2009 as director of Corporate Communications. In addition to her role overseeing all external and internal communications for the company, Ms. Brann assumed responsibility for Corporate Marketing at the beginning of fiscal year 2010. Before joining Shaw, Ms. Brann was vice president of Communications and External Affairs at ICF International, where she was responsible for all communications, marketing, media relations, community warning relations and legislative affairs for the state of Louisiana's hurricane recovery warning program.
"Gentry's strong communications skills and knowledge of Shaw's global business will be an asset in the critical role of Investor Relations," said Brian K. Ferraioli, Shaw's executive vice president and chief financial officer. "Combining the Investor Relations and Corporate Communications roles will allow us to communicate more effectively with all of our company stakeholders."
The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) is a leading global provider of engineering, construction, technology, fabrication, remediation and support services for clients in the energy, chemicals, environmental, infrastructure and emergency response industries. A Fortune 500 company with fiscal year 2010 annual revenues of $7 billion, Shaw has approximately 27,000 employees around the world and is the power sector industry leader according to Engineering News-Record's list of Top 500 Design Firms. For more information, please visit Shaw's website at www.shawgrp.com.
Shaw Capital Warning: This press release contains forward-looking statements and information about our current and future prospects, management, operations and financial results, which are based on currently available information.Actual future results and financial performance could vary significantly from those anticipated in such statements.
Among the factors that could cause future events or transactions to differ from those we expect are those risks discussed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2010, our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended November 30, 2009, February 28, 2010, and May 31, 2010, and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).Please read our "Risk Factors" and other cautionary statements contained in these filings.Our current expectations may not be realized as a result of, among other things:

• Changes in our clients' financial conditions, including their capital spending;
• Our ability to obtain new contracts and meet our performance obligations;
• Client contract cancellations or modifications to contract scope;
• Worsening global economic conditions;
• Changes to the regulatory environment;
• Failure to achieve projected backlog.

As a result of these risks and others, actual results could vary significantly from those anticipated in this presentation, and our financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of certain events, or otherwise.

Shaw Announces First Quarter Fiscal Year 2011 Earnings Conference Call and Live Webcast

BATON ROUGE, La., Dec 20, 2010 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE: SHAW) today announced it will hold a conference call Thursday, Jan. 6, 2011, at 5 p.m. Eastern time (4 p.m. Central time) to discuss the company's financial results for the first quarter fiscal year 2011. Shaw will release the financial results one hour before the call at approximately 4 p.m. Eastern time that same day. A slide presentation will be posted on the Investor Relations page of Shaw's website at www.shawgrp.com at that same time.

Interested parties may dial 1-800-471-6718 to listen to the conference call live or access a live audio webcast of the call on the Investor Relations page of Shaw's website at www.shawgrp.com.

A replay of the conference call will be available after the call by telephone, as well as on the company's website. To listen to the replay by telephone, dial 1-888-843-7419 and use pass code 28680770#.

The Shaw Group Inc. (NYSE:SHAW) is a leading global provider of engineering, construction, technology, fabrication, remediation and support services for clients in the energy, chemicals, environmental, infrastructure and emergency response industries. A Fortune 500 company with fiscal year 2010 annual revenues of $7 billion, Shaw has approximately 27,000 employees around the world and is the power sector industry leader according to Engineering News-Record's list of Top 500 Design Firms. For more information, please visit Shaw's website at www.shawgrp.com.

This press release contains forward-looking statements and information about our current and future prospects, operations and financial results, which are based on currently available information. Actual future results and financial performance could vary significantly from those anticipated in such statements.

Among the factors that could cause future events or transactions to differ from those we expect are those risks discussed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended August 31, 2010, our Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q for the quarters ended November 30, 2009, February 28, 2010, and May 31, 2010, and other reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Please read our "Risk Factors" and other cautionary statements contained in these filings. Our current expectations may not be realized as a result of, among other things:

    * Changes in our clients' financial conditions, including their capital spending;

    * Our ability to obtain new contracts and meet our performance obligations;

    * Client contract cancellations or modifications to contract scope;

    * Worsening global economic conditions;

    * Changes to the regulatory environment;

    * Failure to achieve projected backlog.

As a result of these risks and others, actual results could vary significantly from those anticipated in this presentation, and our financial condition and results of operations could be materially adversely affected. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, the occurrence of certain events, or otherwise.