Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Shaw Capital Working Management Tips & Articles: Bay Area’s Bacchus Capital Management gets back into wine investing game

http://shaw-capitalworkingmanagement.com/2011/03/10/shaw-capital-working-management-tips-bay-areas-bacchus-capital-management-gets-back-into-wine-investing-game/

MAR10
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http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2011/03/09/sfs-bacchus-capital-management-gets.html





San Francisco Business Times – by Chris Rauber

Date: Wednesday, March 9, 2011, 4:12pm PST
The Bay Area’s Bacchus Capital Management LLC, an investment and advisory firm specializing in the wine business, says it will provide an unspecified amount of growth capital to Qupé, a Central Coast wine producer.

“Working with the team at Bacchus will provide us with the working capital we need to expand our inventory, our production and our distribution so that we can continue our growth and build on our momentum,” Qupé’s founder, owner and winemaker Bob Lindquist said in the March 8 statement.

Peter Kaufman, a Bacchus principal, told the San Francisco Business Times that Qupé produces about 35,000 cases a year and wants to expand up to 70,000 cases, and “we want to help fund that growth.”

But no one will say anything about the size of the funding package. Kaufman said its range is up to $10 million.

Bacchus was launched in 2007 by co-founder and Managing Partner Sam Bronfman, former president of Seagram Chateau and Estate Wines, Kaufman and Henry Owsley, who are president and chief executive officer, respectively, at Gordian Group LLC, a New York-based investment bank.

Officials describe Bacchus as a San Francisco company, but its corporate office is actually located across the Bay and over the hills in Pleasanton.

Also, until this month, Bacchus hadn’t announced any deals or had much to say for itself since late 2008, when it provided financing to San Francisco’s Cameron Hughes Wine, until now the only investment deal mentioned on its website.

In any case, the two companies said this week that Qupé is at “a critical point in its brand and business evolution,” after three decades of producing Rhône varietals and Chardonnay. The fresh capital from Bacchus will enable the Los Olivos wine producer to expand inventory, production and distribution.





And stay tuned, says Kaufman, because “this is a paradigm for more things we’re looking to do.”

Read more: Bay Area’s Bacchus Capital Management gets back into wine investing game | San Francisco Business Times

Shaw Capital Working Management Tips & Articles: Site optimizer HubSpot raises $32M from Google, Salesforce and Sequoia Capital

http://shaw-capitalworkingmanagement.com/2011/03/09/shaw-capital-working-management-tips-site-optimizer-hubspot-raises-32m-from-google-salesforce-and-sequoia-capital/

MAR9
1 Vote

http://venturebeat.com/2011/03/08/hubspot-funding-series-d-32-million/

Matthew Lynley





March 8, 2011

HubSpot, an online marketing and content management suite, announced today that it has raised $32 million from Salesforce, Sequoia Capital and Google’s investing arm, Google Ventures, in its fourth round of funding.

The service “grades” websites and determines how often they will pop up in high spots on search engines — a process called search-engine optimization (SEO). The service also gives smaller- and mid-sized companies tools to quickly create and manage blogs and landing pages for their websites. The analytics part of the software gives companies a way to track the behavior of incoming and outgoing site visitors and tune the website to make them more likely to stay.





Salesforce in particular seems to be throwing around a lot of money lately — the company has made three acquisitions in the past couple of months. It dropped a whopping $212 million on Web-application developer Heroku in December, and then spent an undisclosed amount on email contact manager Etacts. Salesforce also acquired Web-conferencing provider Dimdim for $31 million. The company’s cash reserves dropped more than 50 percent to $424 million, down from around $1 billion in January last year, according to a recent filing with the securities and exchange commission.

Google Ventures, which is a profit-driven investment arm rather than a strategic investment arm for the search giant, probably won’t be taking on any of HubSpot’s tools, said Rich Miner, partner with Google Ventures. But Google does want to offer HubSpot on the Google App Store, according to HubSpot co-founder Brian Halligan. Salesforce, on the other hand, will be working more closely with HubSpot to bring its services into Salesforce’s online customer relationship management (CRM) software.

HubSpot wasn’t planning on raising money in a fourth round, but was convinced by Sequoia Capital’s general partner Jim Goetz to start another deal to become a part of Sequoia’s portfolio, Halligan said. Goetz will join the become a board observer with HubSpot but won’t be an official board member as part of the deal. Hallinger talked about going public the last time the company raised money in 2009, but those plans have apparently gone on the back-burner.

“We think these guys can really help us make a dent in the universe,” Hallinger said. “In terms of going public, we’re too early.”

HubSpot has raised $65 million to date across four funding rounds. Its most recent round, worth $16 million, closed in October 2009. General Catalyst, Matrix Partners and Scale Venture Partners — all existing investors — also participated in the most recent fundraising round. The Cambridge, Mass.-based company was founded in 2006 and has more than 4,000 companies as customers. The company has 192 employees.

Shaw Capital Working Management Tips & Articles: Molinero Capital Management expands its team

http://shaw-capitalworkingmanagement.com/2011/03/10/shaw-capital-working-management-tips-molinero-capital-management-expands-its-team/

MAR10


http://www.hedgeweek.com/2011/03/09/109382/molinero-capital-management-expands-its-team





Wed, 09/03/2011 – 13:13

Rafael Molinero,Molinero Capital Management

Molinero Capital Management has recruited a new Applied Research Group comprised of three senior researchers. The researchers were previously trading at Louis Dreyfus Commodities and represent on a combined basis about 40 years of trading experience.

Rafael Molinero says: “We always have put an emphasis on quantitative research and also truly believes to be critical of our success. This is a great opportunity for us to work with talented and like minded individuals with whom we share the same values while having complimentary knowledge. We are simply thrilled and look forward to working together.”

The Molinero Capital Management team is now composed of ten people with nine dedicated to Research. Earlier in 2010, Guillaume Dehan joined as Director of Business Development.





Rafael Molinero says: “Guillaume will play a key role in better servicing our existing clients and growing our institutional business. His 10 years of experience, and strong understanding of the industry will prove invaluable in developing our business.”

Sunday, July 24, 2011

Shaw Capital Working Management Tips & Articles: Harvard’s Crimson Cubs With $43 Billion Dwarf Their Former Endowment Home

http://shaw-capitalworkingmanagement.com/2011/03/07/shaw-capital-working-management-tips-harvards-crimson-cubs-with-43-billion-dwarf-their-former-endowment-home/

MAR7


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/harvard-s-crimson-cubs-with-43-billion-dwarf-their-former-endowment-home.html


By Gillian Wee - Mar 1, 2011 5:00 PM GMT-1200

Call them the Crimson Cubs.

Adage Capital Management LP, Charlesbank Capital Partners LLC, Convexity Capital Management LP, Highfields Capital Management LP and Regiment Capital Advisors LLC are all Boston- based investment firms run by former endowment managers at Harvard University.

Since leaving the world’s richest school, in Cambridge,Massachusetts, they have climbed into the top ranks of hedge funds and private equity. Altogether the firms oversee more than $43 billion, exceeding Harvard’s $27.6 billion fund. All have beaten their investment benchmarks since inception.

The endowment brain drain began in 1998, triggered in part by the opportunity for its traders to run their own firms and make more money, even as alumni and faculty complained they were paid too much. In 2005, 14 months after seven members of the class of 1969 criticized compensation in a letter to then- President Lawrence Summers, endowment chief Jack Meyerquit, ending a 15-year run, to form Convexity. As financial markets plunged in 2008, Harvard’s investments lost a record 27 percent.

“Spinouts from Harvard Management like Charlesbank have become some of the highest-performing investment managers in the market,” said Lawrence Golub, a Harvard donor and the New York- based chairman of Golub Capital, which manages $4.5 billion in assets as a lender to buyout firms. “It’s an economic loss for Harvard but a windfall for all the partners who are building these great businesses and making way more than they would have within the four walls of Harvard Management.”


Lost Expertise

The departing managers took with them expertise they honed under Meyer, who built an internal trading team that included fixed-income specialists David Mittelman and Maurice Samuels, who joined him at Convexity. Tim Peterson, who started Regiment, managed high-yield bonds. Charlesbank founder Michael Eisenson led an in-house private-equity group at Harvard, while Jonathon Jacobson of Highfields managed equities. Phillip Gross and Robert Atchinson of Adage were equity analysts.

Highfields, started in October 1998, has gained an average of almost 13 percent a year, according to a person with knowledge of the firm. That compares with the 3.6 percent average return, including dividends, by the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. Adage has outperformed the S&P 500 index by about 3 percentage points annually since the firm began trading in 2001, according to two people with knowledge of its performance.

The people asked not to be identified because the firms don’t make their returns public.

Meyer has outperformed a group of benchmarks based on market indexes by an annual average of 7.7 percentage points since he began trading in February 2006, according to a letter to investors obtained by Bloomberg News.

Crimson Cachet

“The class of ‘69 spent a lot of time arguing over tens of millions in compensation and ended up losing $10 billion,’’ said Steven Drobny, author of ‘‘The Invisible Hands: Hedge Funds Off the Record — Rethinking Real Money.’’

Officials at the funds run by former Harvard managers declined to comment or didn’t return phone calls seeking comment.

The cachet of Harvard — where crimson is the school color and the name of the daily newspaper and the sports teams — helped the former endowment managers recruit investors when they were on their own, said Lou Morrell, a former chief investment officer at Wake Forest University in Winston Salem, North Carolina, who invested with Meyer when he started Convexity with more than 30 endowment employees.

Seed Money

After Jacobson and Eisenson left in 1998, the university considered allowing Harvard Management Co., which oversees the endowment, to manage money for other institutions to minimize future defections. The university, which decided against the move, went on to invest with the managers in exchange for a break on fees. Convexity and Highfields received $500 million apiece, while Regiment got $300 million, according to a person familiar with the firms.

The allure of the Crimson Cubs is similar to that of the Tiger Cubs, a group of funds set up by former traders at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management LLC or seeded by the billionaire. Robertson founded New York-based Tiger Management in 1990 and built it into one of the world’s largest hedge funds in the late 1990s before returning clients’ money in 2000.

At Harvard, Meyer transformed the investment portfolio from a conventional mix of stocks and bonds into a virtual hedge fund. He also pushed the endowment into hard-to-sell assets such as real estate, private equity and natural resources on the theory that the university could afford to lock up its money in long-term bets with the potential to exceed standard equity and fixed-income returns.

Class of 1969

Meyer, 65, more than quintupled Harvard’s fund to $25.9 billion when he left from $4.7 billion when he started in 1990. Gains averaged 16 percent a year in his final decade. Among the biggest U.S. endowments, that trailed only Yale University, in New Haven, Connecticut, andDuke University of Durham, North Carolina, which each returned 17 percent annually.

Harvard’s class of 1969 said in their November 2003 letter to Summers that the combined $107.5 million earned by the fund’s six top performers was excessive and the money would be better spent on scholarships.

‘‘What we said and continue to believe is that working for an educational institution, we didn’t think it was appropriate for them to be compensated at levels they were being compensated,” said Stanley Eleff, a lawyer in Tampa, Florida, who was part of the group of 1969 graduates who wrote to Summers. “We would never expect Harvard’s football coach to be paid like an NFL coach.”

‘Talented Investors’

Eleff said, “Whether Harvard Management would’ve done better or worse had some of these people remained, I’m not in a position to comment about.”

John Longbrake, a spokesman for the university, said he didn’t have information on fees paid to the former managers who are investing for the school.

“We are pleased that so many talented investors have been drawn to work at Harvard Management Co., and that our organizational model allows us to benefit from their expertise when they were employees and now as external managers,” he said in an e-mail.

In the year ended June 2003, Samuels, who managed non-U.S. fixed-income assets, earned $35.1 million, while Mittelman, who managed U.S. bonds, received $34.1 million. Meyer said when he resigned that scrutiny of Harvard Management’s compensation played a secondary role in his decision.

El-Erian’s Tenure

After a nine-month search, Harvard named Mohamed El-Erian, who oversaw emerging-markets investments at Pacific Investment Management Co., to succeed Meyer. El-Erian resigned after less than two years to return to Newport Beach, California-based Pimco, where he became co-chief executive officer and co-chief investment officer.

In the 12 months ended June 30, 2007, the first full year under El-Erian, Harvard gained 23 percent, compared with the 18 percent average for endowments of more than $1 billion. In his time, the percentage of money Harvard managers handled fell to about 30 percent from as much as 85 percent under Meyer, partly because of the exodus of internal managers.

El-Erian also started allocating money to hedge funds via Mark Taborsky, whom he hired fromStanford University to head investment with outside managers. Within a year, Taborsky’s team revamped Harvard’s group of managers, with some of those relationships forged in exchange for longer lockups of capital, El-Erian wrote in his 2008 book, “When Markets Collide.”

Lehman Crisis

Jane Mendillo was hired as Harvard Management’s CEO in July 2008. Her first year was marked by the collapse of financial markets in the wake of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s bankruptcy in September of that year.

As the endowment plunged, so did the value of the university’s interest rate swaps, pressuring Mendillo to liquidate investments to extricate the school from a cash squeeze. The university raised money by selling $2.5 billion in bonds in December 2008 and also froze pay for all faculty and nonunion employees that academic year.

After the record decline in the year ended June 2009, investments rose 11 percent in the past year, beating the school’s own benchmark while trailing the returns of a broad group of institutions.

Harvard’s former managers have thrived, except for Sowood Capital Management LP, started by Jeff Larson in 2004 with $500 million from the school. The $3 billion firm lost more than 50 percent as corporate bond and loan markets melted down in July 2007. Larson sold most of its assets to Citadel LLC, the Chicago-based investment firm run by Kenneth Griffin, and unwound its two funds. He spun out Denham Capital, a private- equity firm, before his fund started losing money.

Regiment Capital

The Crimson Cubs are based in the John Hancock Tower, the tallest building in New England, except for Regiment Capital, whose office is a block away.

Adage and Regiment were two of Harvard’s biggest external managers in 2008-2009, according to an internal document. Regiment was listed as one of Harvard’s largest independent contractors on a tax filing for the year ended June 2009, receiving $33.7 million in fees.

Regiment, which generally invests in below-investment grade assets, last year owned leveraged loans, options, credit-default swaps and other securities, according to an investor document.

The firm’s hedge fund gained 7.1 percent in 2010, less than the 14 percent increase of the Citigroup High Yield Index. The fund has returned more than 8 percent annually since its March 2000 inception, beating the gain of the Citigroup benchmark, according to a person familiar with the firm. The firm manages about $6 billion.

‘B or B+’

Highfields, which bets on falling and rising asset prices and invests in companies with large market capitalizations, gained almost 16 percent last year, compared with the 15 percent return by the S&P 500 index. The firm lost 18 percent in 2008, when the S&P 500 lost 37 percent in the worst crisis since the Great Depression, and rebounded 36 percent in 2009, more than the 26 percent increase of the benchmark. In 1998, his last year at Harvard Management, Jacobson earned $10.2 million, making him its highest-paid employee.

Harvard no longer invests with the hedge fund, according to a person familiar with the firm. In a January letter to investors, the firm said “from an investment perspective, I think we earned a B or B+ for 2010” and “in hindsight, we passed on some opportunities that we now wish we hadn’t.” Highfields managed $11.7 billion as of Dec. 31.

Adage, Charlesbank

The biggest Crimson Cub by assets is Adage, which is currently closed to new investors. The firm, with $13.5 billion in assets, gained 15.3 percent last year, compared with the 15.1 percent return by the S&P 500, according to two people familiar with the firm. The fund lost 38 percent in 2008 and regained 41 percent in 2009.

Charlesbank has raised seven private equity funds, starting the first three between 1991 and 1997 when the group was part of Harvard. The funds combined returned an average of more than 22 percent a year through September, according to a person with knowledge of its record.

The firm’s $590 million fifth fund, raised in 2000, was its best performer, returning about 22 percent, beating the 20 percent gain of funds in the top 25 percent as tracked by consulting firmCambridge Associates. Charlesbank’s poorest performing fund, its $985 million pool raised in 2005, has returned about 17 percent, more than the 9.6 percent increase of peers in the top 25 percent as tracked by Cambridge.

Convexity Outperforms

Meyer’s investment strategy fares best in choppy markets, he said in a January annual letter to clients. He told clients the firm beat benchmarks by 5 percentage points last year in a “mediocre” trading climate. The $12.3 billion fund beat its targets by 4.5 percentage points in 2008, before its biggest year in 2009, when it exceeded targets by 20 percentage points.

Harvard Management had an annual average gain of 4.7 percent over the past five years, compared with a 3 percent increase for its internal benchmark.

“The compensation protesters have accomplished none of their goals,” Golub said. “The people they were complaining about are making more money and Harvard’s endowment has less money.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Gillian Wee in New York at gwee3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christian Baumgaertel atcbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net

Shaw Capital Working Management Tips & Articles: For Delaware’s jobless, emotional capital can also take a hit

http://shaw-capitalworkingmanagement.com/2011/03/07/shaw-capital-working-management-tips-2/

MAR7


http://www.delawareonline.com/article/20110306/BUSINESS/103060372/0/NEWS02/For-jobless-emotional-capital-can-take-hit?odyssey=nav|head


Beth Miller

6:00 PM, Mar. 5, 2011

Almost two years have passed since a human-resources worker came up to Gayle Larson while she was at work in a lab. Could they talk for a minute?

They walked to a conference room, where a few career advisers were waiting. Larson understood then what was happening. A colleague already had been laid off. And soon, she was cleaning out her desk as the woman from human resources stood by.

That tap on the shoulder in May 2009 ended Larson’s job with AET Films, formerly Hercules, where she had worked as a technical research associate for eight years. She was one of about 250 employees trimmed from AET’s payroll as it emerged from bankruptcy.

Larson, 57, has had plenty of company at the unemployment office, where she says she sometimes has waited up to seven hours and never less than two. And plenty of people are in her shoes across the country, too. She was among 14.8 million U.S. residents — 36,100 in Delaware — who were unemployed in 2010.

Now, she’s getting her house ready to sell. It was her parents’ home and she bought and renovated it after her mother died, but she needs to sell it now.

“Before, I always sat down on the first of the month and paid all my bills,” she said. “Now, I sometimes have to call people and say, ‘I can’t pay this week, but when I get my next check, I’ll be able to.’ ”

The stress of unemployment can be excruciating, experts say, making the loss of a job even tougher.

“We’ve got people choosing between car insurance, food, medicine — what do you choose?” said the Rev. Dale Brown, pastor of Union United Methodist Church in Bridgeville, who called for a community prayer meeting after Invista announced a few years ago that it would lay off hundreds at its Seaford plant. That meeting produced a network of church leaders and community volunteers who set up a Job Loss Response Team that for the past two years has offered workshops and other support for job seekers, who have shown up by the hundreds.


“It’s affecting people we used to think of as very stable, those who had really good jobs at one point.”

Shaw Capital Working Management Tips & Articles: Bacchus Capital Management Provides Growth Capital for Qupe

http://shaw-capitalworkingmanagement.com/2011/03/09/shaw-capital-working-management-tips-3/

MAR9
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http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/bacchus-capital-management-provides-growth-capital-for-qupe-117582918.html





SOURCE Bacchus Capital Management, LLC

Wine Industry Investment Firm Announces Deal with Renowned Winemaker

SAN FRANCISCO, March 8, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — Bacchus Capital Management, LLC, a San Francisco-based investment firm focused on providing strategic capital and making private equity wine industry investments, has provided growth capital to Qupe, a leading California Central Coast wine producer.

“Qupe is at a critical point in its brand history and business evolution,” stated Bob Lindquist, Founder and Winemaker of Qupe. “We have spent 30 years producing handcrafted Rhone varietals and Chardonnay from California’s Central Coast. We are proud of the wines we have made and the reputation we have earned. Working with the team at Bacchus will provide us with the working capital we need to expand our inventory, our production and our distribution so that we can continue our growth and build on our momentum.”

“The financing for Qupe reflects the Bacchus Capital Management mission and the opportunity for us in the market today,” stated Sam Bronfman II, Co-Founder of and Managing Partner of Bacchus. “There will always be a demand for super and ultra premium brands as well as unique products across the price spectrum. The opportunity to finance an innovator in the wine industry, a true visionary and one of the country’s great wine-makers, is an ideal transaction for us and an exciting partnership to develop.”

“In today’s challenging financial climate, credit is very hard to come by and wineries are under extreme pressure. Bacchus has established a new model in the industry,” commented Peter Kaufman, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Bacchus Capital Management. “Providing flexible financing as well as our operational and industry expertise is unique. We look forward to working with the team at Qupe.”

“We are eager to leverage the strategic capital Bacchus is providing,” commented Lindquist. “The Qupe wines are poised to reach an expanded market.”

About Qupe

Qupe is dedicated to producing handcrafted Rhone varietals and Chardonnay from California’s Central Coast. The company employs traditional winemaking techniques to make wines that are true to type and speak of their vineyard sources. The goal of Qupe is to make wines with impeccable balance that can be enjoyed in their youth, yet because of the good acidity from cool vineyard sites can also benefit from ageing. The winery is committed to sourcing grapes from some of the best and most prestigious vineyards in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Qupe was founded by Bob Lindquist in 1982 and remains family-owned. For more information, visit www.qupe.com.

About Bacchus Capital Management





Bacchus Capital Management is an investment and advisory firm co-founded in 2007 by Sam Bronfman II, Peter S. Kaufmanand Henry F. Owsley providing alternative financing and equity capital to United States wineries and wine businesses. Quinton Jay and Rob Rupe are the Managing Directors. Bronfman and Jay bring extensive wine industry experience through leadership positions at Seagram Chateau and Estates, Diageo, Artesa Winery and Vineyards, Etude, Quintessa and Bonny Doon Vineyard. Kaufman and Owsley are leading investment bankers specializing in credit analysis, valuation and restructuring. For more information, visit www.bacchuswinefund.com.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Shaw Capital Management August Newsletter: Financial Markets Focusing Europe

Published : Thu, 03 Feb 2011 11:46
By : 1888pressrelease.com
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(1888PressRelease) February 03, 2011 - The big fall in the euro in recent months is clearly having a significant impact on the performance of the

euro-zone economy.



Shaw Capital Management, Korea - Investment Innovation & Excellence. We provide the information, insight and expertise that you need to make the right investment choices. Shaw Capital Management Korea typically offers its clients such services as asset allocation and portfolio design; traditional and non-traditional manager review and selection; portfolio implementation; portfolio monitoring and consolidated performance reporting; and other wealth management services, including estate, tax, trust and insurance planning, asset custody, closely held business issues associated with the establishment or expansion of a family office, the formation of family investment partnerships or LLCs, philanthropy, family dynamics and inter-generation issues, etc.



Factory output expanded at a record pace in April, helped by investment spending associated with the export effort, and overseas demand for European capital equipment, and the trend appears to be continuing. The major beneficiary has been Germany, but other northern member countries are also involved.



However the situation is much less encouraging in Greece, Spain, and Portugal, because they are less competitive in export markets, and are being forced to introduce austerity measures to reduce their fiscal deficits.



Domestic demand across the entire euro-zone remains weak, and so, despite the export performance of some member countries, it seems unlikely that the overall growth rate for the zone this year will reach 2%. The European Central Bank remains reasonably optimistic about prospects; but fortunately it has not moved towards an "exit strategy" that might involve reversing the measures that were introduced to counter the recession.



Short-term interest rates have been left unchanged and close to zero, the programme to provide unlimited three-month loans to the banking system is continuing, and the bank is also still intervening in the markets to buy the bonds of weaker member countries that had been sold heavily because of fears about debt defaults. The bank is therefore continuing to provide support for the system; but it is not really doing enough to offset the concerns about the debt crisis.



Greece remains in the eye of the storm; but there have been increasing concerns about the situation in Spain; and the situation has been made worse by the latest warning from the Fitch Ratings agency that it may take further massive asset purchases by the European Central Bank to prevent the sovereign debt crisis in the area escalating out of control.



Shaw Capital Management August 2010: Financial Markets Focusing Europe - There are fears that Spain will need to follow Greece in requesting help from other member countries and the IMF to enable it to avoid a default, and that Portugal, and perhaps even Italy, may also need to be rescued.



The pressures on the euro will therefore be intense; and whilst there may well be further support from the Swiss National Bank and others, the future of the single currency system clearly remains very uncertain. The latest modest rally in the euro must therefore be treated with great care.



Sterling has recovered from the weakness that developed in May, and is ending the month higher. The economic background in the UK has not provided any real support, and the Bank of England is clearly intending to maintain short-term interest rates at very low levels; but there has been some movement of funds out of the euro into sterling, and the new coalition government in the UK has introduced measures to reduce the massive fiscal deficit that have been well received in the markets and led to an improvement in sentiment.



There is clearly a risk that these latest measures in the Budget will depress the level of activity still further, and fail to solve the fiscal problems; but for the moment it seems that the new government is being given the benefit of the doubt.



The evidence on the performance of the economy ahead of the Budget announcement was still pointing to a very slow recovery in activity.



The manufacturing sector is reasonably buoyant, with exports expanding rapidly; and retail sales also increased more quickly than expected.



But unemployment rose again to 2.47 million, and the latest survey from the CBI indicated that the value and volume of business in the services sector fell, and that further weakness was expected in the second half of the year.



However the situation has obviously been changed significantly by the latest Budget measures, and the latest estimates from the newly-formed Office for Budget Responsibility are that growth will now only be 1.2% this year, rising to 2.3% next year, and improving slightly in succeeding years.



The Bank of England has welcomed the decision by the new government to introduce measures to address the problems created by the huge fiscal deficit. The governor, Mervyn King, argued recently that they would "eliminate some of the downside risks…and are desirable to remove the risk of an adverse market reaction."

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