Sunday, May 29, 2011

Shaw Capital Management Investment Equity Markets 2010 Part 1

Equity markets have rallied over the past month, sentiment has swung once again towards a more optimistic view of the prospects for the global economy, and concerns about sovereign debt defaults in Europe have eased.
Wall Street has recovered from the sharp sell-off in late-June, helped by some encouraging second quarter earnings reports; and markets in Europe have responded, with the UK market providing the best performance over the month. The worst performance amongst the major markets has occurred in the Japanese market because of disappointing economic news and increased political uncertainty after the setback for the government in the recent election.
The general improvement in the markets over the month is a welcome development. The gloom in April and May about economic prospects was clearly overdone. The US economy is performing as expected, and the Chinese authorities are clearly intent on preventing their economy from overheating.

The global economic recovery will therefore proceed at a slow pace. The sovereign debt crisis in Europe remains unresolved and defaults remain a real possibility. The risks have therefore increased in the bond markets, and this has provided support for the equity markets. So long as monetary policy remains supportive, the global recovery should eventually produce a sustainable improvement in bond prices; but some of the current uncertainties in the bond markets must be resolved before this can occur. The performance of the US economy remains the key factor is assessing the prospects for the equity markets. There has already been a request to Congress for additional spending programmes “to keep the economic recovery on track”, and although there has been no response so far, some action may become necessary. The excess gloom has disappeared, fears about sovereign debt defaults in Europe have eased, and there have been encouraging corporate results from a number of major companies, including Microsoft, Caterpillar, UPS, and Intel. Problems still remain in the banking sector, and have been reflected in the fall in earnings from investment banking at Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America, and JPMorgan; but overall investors have been reassured that corporations are coping fairly well with the present situation. Mainland European markets have also recovered from the sharp falls. There has been encouraging news about the economic background in the euro-zone; fears about sovereign debt defaults have eased; and the latest “stress tests” have only revealed weaknesses in seven of the ninety-one banks that were included in the survey.
Euro Markets have therefore been able to follow the upward trend on Wall Street, and regain recent losses, despite the uncertainties that have still to be resolved.

Conditions are clearly continuing to improve in many areas of the euro-zone economy, and especially in
Germany, helped by the big fall in the value of the euro in the first half of the year, and the strong growth in many of the export markets in the developing world. German companies have taken full advantage of the competitive currency and the available export opportunities, and so, even though domestic demand has remained relatively weak, the German economy is now expected to grow by around 2% this year.
The situation is very different in Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, and even in Italy, and these weaker economies are obviously acting as a drag on the overall performance of the area. The latest purchasing managers indices for both the manufacturing and services sectors of the area are higher, and argue against a pessimistic view of growth prospects; but for the moment we have left unchanged our modest forecasts of overall growth around 1.5% this year. The European Central Bank is clearly more optimistic about prospects. So far it has not raised its growth forecasts; but based presumably on the assumption that the recovery from recession is soundly based and self-sustaining, its reaction to the present situation contrasts sharply with the cautious view of the Fed. The president, Jean Claude Trichet, is arguing that further public spending cuts and tax increases should be introduced immediately, especially in Europe, but also elsewhere in the industrialised world. “Without the swift and appropriate action of central banks” he recently argued, “and a very significant contribution from fiscal policies, we would have experienced a major recession. But now is the time to restore fiscal sustainability”. It is not clear what the consequences of this view might be; but the central bank might even be encouraged to tighten monetary policy as the present programme of fiscal retrenchment develops.


At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices.

Shaw Capital Management Investment Portfolio Performance 2010

We have made no changes in our portfolios this month. The swing in sentiment towards a more favourable view of prospects for the global economy is encouraging, and has been reflected in the recovery in equity prices. We have therefore decided to maintain our holdings in Euro & US equities. We continue to retain our 10% holding in cash deposits as a contingency measure. The sovereign debt crisis remains a very serious threat, thus we have zero exposure to bonds.
World Growth
There has been much talk in recent weeks of a ‘double- dip’ recession, as some weak figures have come out. However wobbles of this type are fairly typical in a recovery from a severe recession. In our view the recovery remains in line with the path we have laid out before. This was for a world recovery that would be restrained by raw material shortages, which would put constant upward pressure on their prices. So we see world growth this year at around the 4.5% rate, well below the 5.5% figure being registered at the height of the boom; notice that the world is not ‘catching up’ the lost output of 2009, rather it is reverting to a slower growth path from the lower output base. Even with this pattern raw material prices have been very strong, with oil for example near the $80 a barrel mark. The rises in these prices forced China and India to tighten policy and restrain their fast recoveries to prevent inflation. Even now in India inflation is not yet under control, having reached 13.9% in May, and policy will need to tighten further. On a lesser scale inflation has become threatening in a number of emerging market countries. So what we are seeing is that the fast-recovering countries mainly in East Asia are having to restrain their growth. Meanwhile in the OECD countries where inflation remains muted … or in the case of Japan deflation remains entrenched; growth is much weaker than in East Asia. The reason for the disparity of growth lies in the disparity of productivity growth.

In East Asia the movement of people out of low- productivity agriculture into high-productivity manufacturing using the technology imported from advanced countries implies huge productivity growth. In advanced OECD countries productivity growth is dependent on innovation, a much slower process. So we observe a world in which productivity and so GDP growth is restrained generally by tight raw material supplies and in which the OECD countries growth relatively more slowly also. This adds up to a weak recovery in OECD countries, which is what we observe. The picture is not likely to change. It will take time for new technologies and discoveries to shift the shortage of raw materials; there are parallels here with the 1970s and 1980s when it took until the end of the 1980s to ease the acute shortages built up in the earlier decades. By 1990 for example oil per unit of real world GDP had roughly halved from the mid-1970s and oil prices fell to low levels. Nevertheless this does not mean that employment growth need be weak or unemployment remains high.
Labour market flexibility … i.e. real wages falling relative to general productivity and willingness to adopt new practices … can encourage substitution of more labour for capital and raw materials. This is most obvious in service industries where there is plenty of scope for higher labour-intensiveness. Furthermore, service industries themselves can grow faster when labour is more flexible.
So could this weakness turn into a double-dip recession in the OECD? It might seem so if growth there is restrained by tight raw materials and if also governments are pursuing fiscal tightening; the only way might seem to be downward pressure on growth. But this is to leave out the role of monetary policy. In the OECD inflation targeting has been the unsung hero of macro policy; inflation has stayed down in the recovery and deflation kept at bay during the 2009 recession.

The reason lies in the effectiveness of inflation targeting in anchoring expectations. Surprisingly also, many inflation expectations mirrored in wage settlements and bond yields have remained around the 2% mark, reflecting the inflation targets set by most OECD central banks or governments. But it should not be a surprise; the targets have reflected a popular change in overall policy, towards outlawing high and variable inflation. We had it, people did not like it, and policy changed to stop it during the 1980s or at latest by the early 1990s. In the debate over recession and public debt the idea that inflation should be used to tackle either problem has barely been discussed, let alone advocated in any serious way.
What this has meant is that monetary policy has been quite unhampered by the fear of inflation in its aim to keep recovery on track. With OECD banking systems mostly in difficulties credit growth has been held down — in most countries it is hardly positive. So monetary policy has had to use unconventional means to encourage investment and consumption. Interest rates on official lending have been kept close to zero and central banks have aggressively bought financial assets from the public, with the effect that the yields on these assets have been reduced.
These purchase programmes have now been stopped. But if recovery looks threatened they can be restarted and will again have a powerful effect through these asset markets.
Two decades ago such programmes would have raised inflation expectations. Today they are given the benefit of the doubt. Some people argue that they are quite safe because bank credit and broad money therefore are hardly growing; however, one cannot be sure that other financial channels are not replacing banks while they are so weak.

The truth seems to be that firms and people who need finance are mostly able to obtain it on quite cheap terms, so banks are being bypassed to a substantial degree. But inflation is not expected to result because it is widely (and correctly) believed that if inflation were to start rising monetary policy would be tightened. This belief does free central banks to take aggressive action to prop up the economy if it falters. In short we think that the recovery will continue much along the current lines because from above it is held down by raw material shortages while from below it is held up by potentially aggressive monetary policy, with the power to more than offset the dampening from fiscal retrenchment.

At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices.

Shaw Capital Management Investment Financial Market Summary 2010

Financial Markets: Sentiment in the financial markets improved considerably over the past month. There was less concern about the possibility of a move into a “double-dip” recession; and fears about sovereign debt defaults also eased.

The improvement in conditions intensified the debate about the relative merits of austerity measures and further stimulus in the current situation, and revealed a significant difference in the approach of the Fed and the European Central Bank.

Equity Markets: Most of the equity markets recovered strongly from the falls that had occurred at the end of June, helped by some encouraging corporate results in the US, and the relaxation of tension about debt defaults in Europe.

Wall Street led the rally, and markets in Europe were able to follow the upward trend, with the strength of the German economy providing significant support. The best performance amongst the major markets occurred in the UK, as investors continued to react favourably to the proposed measures announced by the new UK government to reduce the huge fiscal deficit. The worst performance amongst the majors occurred in the Japanese market as economic and financial conditions in Japan continued to deteriorate. Government bond markets received some support during the past month from the easing of tensions in the sovereign debt markets in Europe. The recent “shock and awe” support operation agreed by member of the euro-zone, and the decision by the European Central Bank to buy the bonds of some of the weaker countries, has provided some reassurance for investors; but considerable uncertainties remain about prospects for the bond market.

The Fed is suggesting that further stimulatory measures might be necessary, whilst at the same time the ECB is warning that reductions in spending programmes and increases in taxes were now necessary, in Europe, but also elsewhere in the industrialised world. Movements in bond markets have therefore been fairly limited over the month.

Currency Markets: The feature of the currency markets has been the swing in sentiment. This has allowed the euro to rally strongly, helped also by the improving sentiment about sovereign debt defaults; and sterling has also moved higher after the announcement of measures to reduce the fiscal deficit in the UK and the more favourable economic news on the UK economy. The best performance; has been achieved by the yen, as its “safe haven” status has been further enhanced by the more serious problems elsewhere in the currency markets.

Short-Term Interest Rates: There have been no changes in short-term interest rates in the major financial markets over the past month.

Commodity markets have benefited from the general improvement in financial markets over the past month. Significant gains have occurred in base metal prices, and in the prices of wheat and coffee amongst the soft commodities.

Precious metal prices have fallen back, and oil prices are basically unchanged over the month after rallying strongly from recent lows.

At Shaw Capital Management we give you the information and insight you need to make the right investment choices.

Friday, May 27, 2011

BOILER ROOM #55 STANDARD PLACE TAKEOVER/ JOKER FT NOMAD & JESSIE WARE, FRENCH FRIES, ONEMAN, JON RUST & REECHA – HOSTED BY ASBO

#55 STANDARD PLACE TAKEOVER/ JOKER FT NOMAD & JESSIE WARE, FRENCH FRIES, ONEMAN, JON RUST & REECHA – HOSTED BY ASBO


THE BOILER ROOM
boilerroom.tv

cydneychadwick @PeterShepherd @boilerroomtv My house mate said it was good :) I keep meaning to go more but the school night thing holds me back. #Loser

worldglides pics from @jonrust + Reecha's set last night for @boilerroomtv http://bit.ly/lthowd

jonrust RT @worldglides: pics from @jonrust + Reecha's set last night for @boilerroomtv http://bit.ly/lthowd

beatmonkey RT @worldglides: pics from @jonrust + Reecha's set last night for @boilerroomtv http://bit.ly/lthowd

standardplace RT @worldglides: pics from @jonrust + Reecha's set last night for @boilerroomtv http://bit.ly/lthowd

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Family Fun

Give your family a break from video games and TV screens! Our indoor wall climbing facility provides you and your family with a healthy option for positive and active recreation. Whether you're looking for a birthday party, a fun activity for a family outing, or regular family fitness, The Boiler Room is the place to be.

First time climbers over the age of 14 always start with a short lesson to ensure a complete understanding of the rope and harness system as well as basic knowledge about climbing. Children under 14 can boulder in and around our cave while the older folks are "learning the ropes". The entire lesson takes about 30-45 minutes but climbers are usually on the wall within 15-20 minutes.

**PARENTS PLEASE NOTE: The safety lesson requires your undivided attention! Due to demands on staff time, we cannot provide child sitting services while you are in your lesson (it usually takes 15-20 minutes before the climbers get on the wall). If you are coming with young children (under the age of 7), please bring an extra person to supervise them while you concentrate on learning our safety procedures. Ideally, there should be one adult belayer and one adult supervisor for every 4 children age 7 or younger. There is no extra admission fee for those who are not climbing. The gym is not an appropriate place for infants or toddlers.

Booking your Birthday Party...

Climbing parties are most appropriate for ages 6 and older!
We do a lot of birthday parties! A birthday party lasts a maximum of 3.0 hours. If you have 6 or more climbers in your party we can offer you a group rate of $12.50 per child under the age of 14. Those 14 or older are $15 each. These prices include harness rentals and HST. If the children want to rent our climbing shoes it's an extra $2.50 for those under 14 or $5.00 for those under 14 or older. Most youngsters are fine to climb in their running shoes.

We ask that you bring one adult (or person over 14 years) for every 4 children in your party. If you are coming with young children (age 7 or younger), please bring an extra person to supervise them while you concentrate on learning our safety procedures. Ideally, there should be one adult belayer and one adult supervisor for every 4 children age 7 or younger. There is no extra admission fee for those who are not climbing.

The adults will be taught to manage the safety ropes in a lesson that takes about 30-45 minutes (don't worry, the children will be climbing about 15-20 minutes into the lesson). If the adults are not climbing they do not need to pay an admission fee. If you'd like to hire our staff to belay (manage the ropes) for your children instead, the cost is an additional $45 for 3 hours (maximum of 4 children per staff belayer).

Just a reminder that, if the children have not been to our gym before, their parents need to sign our Consent Form. You can download it directly, along with a letter to parents, by clicking HERE. It's a good idea to include the letter and Consent Form with the birthday party invitation.

We sell pop and chocolate bars at the gym but you're also welcome to bring a cooler with your own drinks and snacks. We have an observation deck with a table, chairs and benches if you'd like to bring in or order in food. It's a little rustic but parents manage things like pizza and birthday cake there all the time. Bring your own plates and napkins.

To book your birthday party, give us a call at least 72 hours in advance at 549-0520 or submit your request by email to info@boilerroom.ca (be sure to include your phone number!).

Kid-sitting...(ages 7-13)

Children under the age of 14 must be accompanied by someone older while at our gym. We can provide you with a staff sitter to look after, and manage the safety ropes for, your children at an additional cost of $45 for 3 hours (a maximum of 4 children per staff sitter). Or you can send your own babysitter to us for a training session!

Don't have time for a weekly family outing but the kids still want to climb? Check out our Kids Only Climbing Program and our Rock Solid Youth Program!

BOILER ROOM NEWS

NEWS

THE WEEKND – ROLLING STONE
Hype surrounding the mysterious The Weeknd is massive, it’s not on the same level as Odd Future hype just yet but give it a few months and I’m sure the Village Underground (Shoreditch) mural space will be adorned with Weeknd related scribbles. This new track should keep your apatite moist since that incredible mixtape.

LAPALUX X KELLY BROOK X VINCENT GALLO
Lapalux is trying to weird you out, and he’s succeeding. As new footage emerges to promote the visions in his dreams.

VEZELAY – SEDATIVE (PLANET MU)
Oh my, oh my it’s some brand new Planet Mu business. Straight out of what sounds like a bedroom filled with teen angst, and plenty really cool bits of hardware, this Vezelay guy makes that ambient styled pop music you’ll really dig.

OSSIE – SET THE TONE
After that ‘Tarantula’ track got put out on Lightworks, we’ve been eagerly anticipating some freshness from him. Well – here it is.. via Hyperdub.



NOTHING NEW #003/ TRI-ANGLE RECORDS – OBSESSIONS (CIRCA 2001 – 2002)
For the third in our Nothing new series we hand over to the best three-sided shape in the music industry.. no? Ahhhh, come on!

#55 STANDARD PLACE TAKEOVER/ JOKER FT NOMAD & JESSIE WARE, FRENCH FRIES, ONEMAN, JON RUST & REECHA – HOSTED BY ASBO
Hey everyone, it’s time for another Standard Place at Boiler Room. You know what that means.. it means wall-to-wall party vibes and a line-up that would make a special forces task force cry with joy.

SBTRKT FT. DRAKE AND YUKIMI – WILDFIRE (REMIX)
Nothing but pure fire remix goodness from the SBTRKT camp.

THE CHAIN – LOSTWITHIEL
R&S just announced the release of some new isht from The Chain, and y’all can stream it inside.

TAWIAH – SWEET FOR ME (JET LETTS REMIX)
After Tawiah made that little surprise appearance at Boiler Room, we’ve keeping a close eye on what she’s up to. She’s got a forthcoming album that w can imagine will be pretty amazing – but in the meantime here’s a remix of her track ‘Sweet For Me’ by Jet Letts. It’s real cool..

CULTS – MAKE TIME
Last year boy and girl duo Cults, released sparkly, dreamy jam Go Outside to worldwide blog acclaim. Hype has escalated ever since and on June 7th they are dropping new single Make Time. The same lo-fi, summer vibes found on the last release but with added joy. Lovely. Cults – Make Time by Webzine Obstacle

DRUMS TALKING
One-Handed Music have once again excelled themselves with this Mo Kolours release. A track called Drum Talking, that if you’re in the right frame of mind, does sound a lot like drum talking.

LIVE FROM: TIGER BEER X DEADLY RHYTHM VS DIRTY CANVAS
You know if Deadly Rhythm and Dirty Canvas are lining up a party, you’re in for something pretty special. Both promoters have been responsible for those night where you lose half your belongings and still have the dopest time.

NOTHING NEW #002/ DJ RAGS
For the second installment in our Nothing New series, we hand over to Livin’ Proof affiliated DJ Rags to take us all the way back to a point that earned him a Curtis Mayfield record, some pretty pissed of neighbours and a tattoo.

#54 HOYA:HOYA TAKEOVER/ ILLUM SPHERE, LONE, KRYSTAL KLEAR, JONNY DUB & JON K – HOSTED BY CHUNKY
After we visited Hoya:Hoya’s party for part of our ‘Live From’ series, we just had to invite them down to play Boiler Room for real. They know how to party and we love the music they play. So we’ve got the whole gang down to jam with us.

GIVE HIM THE ROD ALREADY
In case you didn’t know already, Hessle Audio are dropping a compilation of the hottest stuff around real soon – backed with some of the most certified classics in recent years (because they put them out, and it’s time you heard them all over again). You can stream James Blake’s contribution inside.

AFRICA GOES HITECH
If you haven’t bought the Africa Hitech album yet, maybe you should take a long look at your life. What’s that? Oh, you had to buy lunch. That’s not an excuse. I mean listen to it.

NOTHING NEW #001/ BEN UFO – ‘NEVER WENT TO BLUE NOTE’
NOTHING NEW is a new mixtape series we’re starting, and to showcase what it’s all about, we hand over to Mr. Ben UFO.

YOU ALREADY KNOW WHO JON CONVEX IS!
Instra:mental have been on some whole new level so far this year. There albumwas astonishing, Al Bleek’s Boddika alias has been tearing clubs apart – and now the time has come for John Convex to show you why he’s jam hot as well.

STUBBORN HEARTS – NEED SOMEONE
Everyone loves limited run white labels from people you’ve never heard of before, with little to no information about who it’s by or where it’s from. Literally all we know is it’s by someone called Stubborn Hearts, and they’re from South London.

JACKMASTER OFFERS YOU MIXES GALORE
Jackmaster just dropped this mix on us, to warm you all up for his forthcoming Fabric Live CD. The Fabric CD itself is one of the best examples of rapid selection mixing we’ve ever heard – and this is nothing different.

#53 COOLY G’S BIRTHDAY SPECIAL/ KARIZMA, MELO-D, DURRTY GOODZ, ROYCE ROLLS, SKITZ & DEZY DA BONGO MAN
Cooly G wanted to celebrate her birthday up in the Boiler Room, and wouldn’t we just be the biggest of dicks if went and denied her a birthday wish. Expect Frankie & Benny’s vibes.

PICTURES MUSIC FOUND SOMETHING NEW. AGAIN!
Release, after release, after release of stuff that you just have to hear. We look forward to hearing some more from the Dauwd guy.

#52 HYPERDUB TAKEOVER/ FUNKYSTEPZ, LILY MCKENZIE, MIGHTY MOE, SCRUFIZZER, RAMZEE, KODE 9 + SPACEAPE & MORGAN ZARATE
For the longest, longest time, Hyperdub have been doing their thing and people have been loving them for it. This week, they’re finally up in the Boiler Room.

MOUNT KIMBIE HAVE GONE MAD
Mount Kimbie are releasing ‘Carbonated’ back with a sack of goodies, most excitably in the form of unreleased classic ‘Baves Chords’ – which they’re giving away for free. They must be mad!

Getting Started

If you're looking for a great way to workout, some social recreation time, or a place to prepare yourself for outdoor rock climbing, The Boiler Room has a lot to offer…

Indoor wall climbing is a highly social recreational and fitness activity that gives you a chance to challenge yourself in many different ways. Physical strength plays a part -- but climbing also improves your flexibility and helps you hone your strategy and problem solving skills. Beginners are always welcome and basic instruction is included free of charge. We also provide in-depth introductory and technique lessons, as well as occasional climbing courses. Hang out with us and become part of a vibrant climbing community!